Well, okay, then even assuming it's in the hundreds, that's still an awfully
long time. Especially considering that we've been using oil for less than
200 years. Plenty of time for a new source of energy to emerge.
But even the predictions can't account for what isn't discovered. Could
they have guessed the recent breakthrough in harvesting from shale?
The point is that we're in no danger of running out of oil, and considering
the advances in solar power, we'll have that well before the oil is gone.
J/
----- Original Message -----
From: "John W. Cooper" <jwcooper@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Eco Foundation Discussion List" <eco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 1:37 PM
Subject: Re: [Eco] Recycling and P&T's Bullshit
On Jan 31, 2007, at 13:24, Jonathan Grabert wrote:
If you assume that there are no new discoveries of oil deposits, if you
assume there are no advances in technology to extract more from current
deposits, if you assume there are no advances in technology to mine other
sources of oil (like shale), if you assume that processes that use oil
aren't made more efficient, then MAYBE those estimates would be correct.
But that's an awful lot of assumptions, and they go against the entire
history of oil production.
From what I've read, peak oil theories predict the production peak, and
include those assumptions. There are a lot of assumptions, and that is why
there is a lot of disagreement, but I *think* the predictions are in the
hundreds, not thousands, of years. I'll look for data.
Keep in mind that, when adjusted for inflation, the price of oil has gone
DOWN, not up. That's hardly indicitive of a lack of supply.
This graph seems to contradict your claim:
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg>
:-j
J/
----- Original Message ----- From: "John W. Cooper"
<jwcooper@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Eco Foundation Discussion List" <eco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 10:52 AM
Subject: Re: [Eco] Recycling and P&T's Bullshit
On Jan 31, 2007, at 11:37, Jonathan Grabert wrote:
Again, we are in absolutely no danger of running out of oil for
thousands of years.
Thousands? I thought current conservative estimates were between 50 and
200 years. I'll have to look again. This will no doubt start another
thread...
:-j
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